Egg Production Forecast Calculator
Forecast eggs and sellable dozens month by month for a year from flock size, peak laying rate, flock age, start month, and whether you add supplemental light.
Free · no account · works on mobile · embeddable
Best for egg sellers planning subscriptions, standing orders, and winter supply from a small or mid-size flock. Updated .
Your flock
Without light the forecast applies a shallower planning curve for first-cycle birds, which usually skip the fall molt: peak April through June, easing to 70 to 75% of peak in November through January.
Twelve-month forecast
| Month | Of peak | Eggs | Dozens | Sellable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 75% | 585 | 48.8 | 44.8 |
| November | 70% | 546 | 45.5 | 41.5 |
| December | 70% | 546 | 45.5 | 41.5 |
| January | 75% | 585 | 48.8 | 44.8 |
| February | 85% | 663 | 55.3 | 51.3 |
| March | 95% | 741 | 61.8 | 57.8 |
| April | 100% | 780 | 65 | 61 |
| May | 100% | 780 | 65 | 61 |
| June | 100% | 780 | 65 | 61 |
| July | 95% | 741 | 61.8 | 57.8 |
| August | 90% | 702 | 58.5 | 54.5 |
| September | 85% | 663 | 55.3 | 51.3 |
Monthly eggs = hens × peak eggs per hen per week × 4.33 × seasonal factor × pullet ramp × age factor. The seasonal curve is a planning assumption drawn from extension guidance on day length and molt, not a measurement of your flock; disease, heat, predators, and feed changes are not modeled.
About the egg production forecast calculator
A flock does not lay the same number of eggs in November as in May, and an egg business that plans as if it did will oversell the winter. This calculator forecasts twelve months from a start month you choose, applying a seasonal curve for flocks on natural daylight, a ramp for pullets coming into lay, and a decline factor for second-year and older hens. Each month shows eggs, dozens, and sellable dozens after what you keep back; totals, the lowest month, and the highest month are summarized above the table.
It is for anyone selling eggs on a schedule: subscriptions, standing restaurant orders, or a farm stand that would rather post a winter price than an empty cooler.
The seasonal curve and what it stands on
Oregon State Extension explains that to maintain production, day length must increase or remain constant at more than 12 hours, with 14 to 16 hours typical, and that natural day length falls from nearly 16 hours in early summer to just over 8 in early winter. Arizona Extension adds that most adult hens molt once a year, usually at the onset of fall from August through October, and Penn State puts the molt at about 10 to 12 weeks before hens return to lay. The calculator's natural-daylight curve for older hens is a planning assumption built on that guidance: 100% of peak April through June, easing to 90% in August, 80% in September, 60% in October, 55% in November and December, and 65% in January, then recovering through February and March. Pullets and first-year hens get a shallower curve, described below. With supplemental light held at 14 to 16 hours the tool uses a flat curve at peak; real lit flocks still molt, so expect a dip the curve does not show.
Pullets and older hens
Pullets do not start at peak. The forecast ramps them from 25% to 100% of peak over eight weeks, the same ramp the laying age calculator uses, so the first two months of a pullet flock's forecast are lower than the flock will later manage. First-cycle birds, both pullets and first-year hens, usually do not molt in their first fall and lay through their first winter at a reduced rate, so without light they get a shallower planning curve: 100% of peak April through June, 85% in September, 75% in October and January, and 70% in November and December. For second-year or older flocks, an annual decline percentage is applied to every month; 15% is a planning starting point to replace with your own year-over-year records. Extension guidance says hens produce well until 2 to 3 years old and then decline, and North Carolina State's induced-molt tables show second-cycle daily lay rates around 79% against 85 to 86% in the first cycle for commercial layers, with backyard breeds generally losing more.
From eggs to sellable dozens
Monthly eggs are hens times peak eggs per hen per week times 4.33 times seasonal factor times ramp times age factor. Dozens are eggs divided by 12, and sellable dozens subtract the dozens kept back for the household, standing orders, and cracked or undersized eggs. Use the lowest month to set the number of year-round subscriptions you can promise and the highest month to plan summer specials or wholesale. Disease, heat stress, predators, and feed changes are not modeled, and the curve is northern-hemisphere; flip the start month by six months for the southern hemisphere.
Worked example: 30 hens starting in October, no light
30 first-year hens with a peak of 6 eggs a week have a peak-month capacity of 780 eggs (65 dozen). Starting in October on natural daylight, the first-cycle curve gives 585 eggs (48.8 dozen) in October, 546 eggs (45.5 dozen) in November and December, 585 in January, 663 in February, 741 in March, 780 (65.0 dozen) in April, May, and June, 741 in July, 702 in August, and 663 in September. Keeping back 4 dozen a month leaves 44.8 sellable dozen in October and 61.0 in April. Over twelve months the flock lays 8,112 eggs, 676.0 dozen, of which 628.0 dozen are sellable, an average of 56.3 dozen a month and about 270 eggs per hen. The lowest month is November at 45.5 dozen and the highest is April at 65.0.
Sources
- Oregon State University Extension, Why did my chickens stop laying? (PNW 565). Day length must increase or stay constant above 12 hours to maintain production (14 to 16 hours typical), natural day length falls from nearly 16 hours to just over 8, peak lay is above 90% at about 35 weeks, and hens produce well until 2 to 3 years old. Accessed Sep 4, 2026.
- Penn State Extension, Management requirements for laying flocks. Provide 14 to 16 hours of light per day for year-round production; a molt takes about 10 to 12 weeks before hens return to lay; each additional laying cycle yields fewer eggs. Accessed Sep 4, 2026.
This calculator gives planning estimates from the numbers you enter. It is not accounting, tax, veterinary, or legal advice. Replace the defaults with your own farm records whenever you have them.
Frequently asked questions
How many fewer eggs do chickens lay in winter?
Without supplemental light, an older flock on natural daylight commonly drops to roughly half of its spring peak in November through January, when short days and the fall molt overlap. The calculator's planning curve uses 55% of peak for November and December and 65% for January for second-year and older hens, and 70 to 75% for first-cycle birds that skip the molt; your records may show more or less.
How much light do laying hens need?
Extension guidance is 14 to 16 hours of light a day, with day length constant or increasing and never below about 12 hours if production is to hold. Add light in the morning so hens still roost with the sunset, and start it before days shorten in late summer rather than after production has fallen.
How much does egg production drop in the second year?
Hens produce well for two to three years and then decline. Commercial second-cycle rates run around 79% of days versus 85 to 86% in the first cycle in North Carolina State's tables, and backyard breeds usually lose more. The calculator applies an annual decline you set, with 15% as a starting point.
When do pullets reach full production?
As a planning figure, about eight weeks after the first egg. The forecast ramps a pullet flock from 25% to 100% of peak over those eight weeks, so use the chicken laying age calculator to time the first egg and set the forecast start month accordingly.
How do I use the forecast for egg subscriptions?
Take the lowest month's sellable dozens, divide by 4.33 for a weekly figure, and that is the most you can promise every week of the year without light. Put that number into the egg subscription capacity calculator with a buffer, and sell the summer surplus as extra dozens or a seasonal share.
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