Day-Old Chick Availability Calculator

How to forecast day-old chick availability

Start with the eggs you expect to set, then apply fertility and hatchability as two separate rates. Fertility estimates how many eggs contain a developing embryo. Hatchability of fertile eggs estimates how many of those fertile eggs will produce chicks.

Why the two percentages should stay separate

If 120 eggs are set at 90% fertility, about 108 are expected to be fertile. At an 85% hatch of fertile eggs, the expected hatch is about 92 chicks—or 76.5% of all eggs set. Keeping both rates visible helps you diagnose whether a weak result began in the breeding flock or during egg handling and incubation.

Use a buffer before accepting preorders

Expected chicks are not the same as safe commitments. Remove chicks retained by the farm, anticipated culls or losses, and a safety reserve before publishing availability. Replace the example percentages with rolling averages from your own candling, breakout, and hatch records.

Source: Mississippi State University Extension explains that hatchability cannot exceed fertility and illustrates why embryo losses make the final hatch rate lower than the fertility rate.